Chargers vs Packers Prediction: Week 11 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – November 19, 2023

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Sunday, November 19, 2023 will see the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) go on the road to challenge the Green Bay Packers (3-6) at Lambeau Field.

Chargers vs. Packers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with oddsmakers listing the Chargers as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Chargers have -162 odds to pick up the win, while the Packers are listed at +136 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 44 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Chargers vs. Packers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 19, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Stadium: Lambeau Field

Betting Preview

Chargers

Despite sporting a bottom-five defense that ranks second-worst in the NFL (393.2 yards allowed per game), the Chargers have put up better results on offense, ranking 11th in the NFL by putting up 349.9 yards per game. The Chargers are putting up 26.6 points per game on offense (seventh in NFL), and they rank 24th on defense with 23.9 points allowed per game.

With 291.2 passing yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks worst in the NFL, the Chargers have been forced to lean on their eighth-ranked passing offense (249.0 passing yards per contest) to keep them in games. The Chargers are putting up 100.9 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 11th, surrendering 102.0 rushing yards per contest.

Defensively, the Chargers have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking third-best by surrendering a 33.9% third-down conversion rate. They rank ninth on offense (42.4% third-down conversion rate). Despite sporting a bottom-five defense in terms of yards per play that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL (5.9 yards per play allowed), the Chargers have had more success on offense, ranking 12th in the NFL by averaging 5.4 yards per play. With 15 forced turnovers (ninth in NFL) against seven turnovers committed (first in NFL), the Chargers’ +8 turnover margin is the third-best in the NFL.

Packers

From an offensive standpoint, the Packers are compiling 311.0 total yards per contest (21st-ranked). They rank 11th in the NFL on defense (320.6 total yards allowed per game). In terms of points scored the Packers rank 21st in the NFL (19.9 points per game), and they are 11th on the other side of the ball (20.2 points allowed per contest).

From an offensive standpoint, the Packers are putting up 208.9 passing yards per game (20th-ranked). They rank seventh in the NFL defensively (187.6 passing yards given up per game). The Packers are putting up 102.1 rushing yards per contest on offense this season (21st-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 133.0 rushing yards per contest (27th-ranked) on defense.

The Packers rank eighth in the NFL with a 42.7% third-down conversion rate on offense, and 13th with a 38.0% third-down percentage allowed on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of yards per play, the Packers rank 17th in the NFL (5.1) and sixth on defense (4.9 yards allowed per play). After forcing eight turnovers (29th in NFL) and turning the ball over 12 times (13th in NFL) this season, the Packers sport the 24th-ranked turnover margin of -4.

Chargers vs. Packers Injury Report

Chargers

Player Pos. Injury Status
Isaiah Spiller RB Illness Out
Keenan Allen WR Shoulder Probable
Chris Rumph II OLB Foot Out
Jalen Guyton WR Groin Out
Zack Bailey OG Gameday inactive Out
Gerald Everett TE Back Out
Essang Bassey DB Gameday inactive Out
Elijah Dotson RB Gameday inactive Out

Packers

Player Pos. Injury Status
Rashan Gary LB Shoulder Probable
Quay Walker LB Groin Probable
Samori Toure WR Gameday inactive Out
Jaire Alexander CB Shoulder Out
Caleb Jones OT Gameday inactive Out
Brenton Cox Jr. LB Gameday inactive Out
Kyu Blu Kelly CB Gameday inactive Out

Chargers vs. Packers Betting Analysis

Chargers Betting Insights

The Chargers have covered the spread three times over nine games with a set spread. The Chargers have an ATS record of 2-1-1 when playing as at least 3-point favorites.

Games involving the Chargers have hit the over three times this season.

Packers Betting Insights

The Packers have gone 4-4-1 against the spread this year. The Packers have an ATS record of 1-1 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.

Games involving Packers have hit the over four times this year. This season, the Packers have won two out of the eight games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Packers have played as an underdog of +136 or more once this season and lost that game.

Chargers vs. Packers Against The Spread & Betting Records

Chargers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.9 48.7 46.9
Implied Team Total AVG 25.9 26.8 24.8
ATS Record 3-5-1 1-3-1 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 3-5-1 2-3-0 1-2-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-2 2-1 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-2 0-1

Packers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.6 41.4 41.7
Implied Team Total AVG 21.7 21.8 21.6
ATS Record 4-4-1 2-2-0 2-2-1
Over/Under Record 4-5-0 1-3-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 1-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-6 1-2 1-4

Players to Watch

Chargers

  • Justin Herbert has 2,348 passing yards (ninth in the NFL), 17 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and five interceptions this year. He has completed 67.1% of his passes, averaging 260.9 yards per game and 7.3 per attempt.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Herbert has 114 rushing yards (third on the Chargers), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • Keenan Allen’s 895 receiving yards this season (fourth in the NFL) have come from 97 targets and 73 receptions (first in the NFL). He’s averaging 99.4 receiving yards and 8.1 catches per game, with six receiving touchdowns (fifth in the NFL).
  • Austin Ekeler’s output on the ground this season includes 332 yards and four TDs. He’s averaging 55.3 yards per game and 3.6 per attempt (36th in the NFL).
  • Ekeler has been on the receiving end of 35 targets in the passing game and has 22 catches (3.7 per game) for 248 yards (41.3 per game) and one TD.
  • In the ground game, Joshua Kelley averages 4.3 yards per attempt (14th in the NFL) and 37.7 yards per game for 339 total rushing yards. He has recorded two rushing touchdowns this season.
  • On defense, Khalil Mack has 34 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 9.0 sacks in 2023.
  • Kenneth Murray has 65 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and one interception this season. He leads the Chargers in tackles.
  • This season, Derwin James has put up 3.0 TFL, 60 tackles, and one interception.
  • So far this season, Joey Bosa has 20 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks.

Packers

  • Jordan Love is averaging 6.7 passing yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL) and 223.2 yards per game this year, completing 58.7% of his passes on the way to 2,009 total yards, 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through nine games.
  • Love has also rushed for two touchdowns and 182 yards (third on the Packers).
  • Romeo Doubs has put together a 2023 campaign that includes 33 catches for 343 yards and six receiving touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) over nine games played. He has been on the receiving end of 59 targets and is averaging 3.7 receptions per game.
  • In nine games played this season, Jayden Reed has 28 catches (3.1 receptions per game on five targets per game) for 417 yards and four receiving touchdowns.
  • Aaron Jones puts up 38.5 rushing yards per game over six games (231 total yards), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • Jones has tacked on 18 catches (3.0 per game) for 166 yards (27.7 per game) and one receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of 28 targets.
  • Quay Walker has amassed 5.0 TFL, 66 tackles, and one interception through seven games in 2023.
  • Rudy Ford has 58 tackles and two interceptions. He is second on the Packers in tackles.
  • Preston Smith has 32 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 5.0 sacks in the 2023 season.
  • Isaiah McDuffie has 53 tackles and 3.0 TFL.

Chargers vs. Packers Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Chargers, and we predict that Chargers will cover the spread (Chargers -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 44 points.

How to Bet on Chargers vs. Packers

You can bet this Chargers vs. Packers pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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